Since the beginning of December, the price of living base paper has increased by 2000 yuan, or more than 37%, 30% month on month and 15% year on year. At present, the main offer price of non tax of spray wood pulp in Baoding, Hebei Province is 7000-7100 yuan / ton; the main market price of Shandong wood pulp is 7100-7200 yuan / ton, Sichuan bamboo pulp is 7300-7400 yuan / ton, and Guangxi sugarcane pulp is 5500-5700 yuan / ton.

        The main reason for the rapid rise of paper price is due to the influence of cost. Since December, the pulp price has been rising continuously, which has driven the living paper market to rise continuously. After the Spring Festival holiday, the pulp price has broken through a new high, with the futures offer price as high as 6500-6600 yuan, which has driven the spot price up by more than 50%. After March, the pulp price has risen again, with the pulp price rising by 100-250 yuan/ Some of the traders in the market continued to close the offer and were reluctant to sell. The downstream base paper mainly stayed on the market. The high price transaction in the market was limited, and the phenomenon of price without market was obvious. The actual transaction price tended to be the actual transaction price. Longzhong information analyzed the price trend mainly for the following reasons: first, the main contract of pulp futures continued to rise at a high level, reaching the highest value of 7652 yuan / ton since the listing, with an increase of over 57%. The spot market price of pulp kept rising, and the pulp price continued to rise; second, after the festival, the downstream market gradually started to resume production, the market logistics gradually recovered, the port inventory narrowly decreased, and the supply side of pulp market declined Third, the price of downstream base paper continued to be high this week. In particular, the white cardboard market entered the "ten thousand Yuan era", adding that March was the traditional peak demand season of base paper, and the demand side of pulp market was bullish, thus stimulating the rise of pulp price.

          From the supply side of the market, the start of paper enterprises is relatively low during the Spring Festival in February every year. During the Spring Festival, 70% of the paper enterprises stop work for a holiday, usually about 15-20 days. The start-up rate in February 2021 is about 50%, which is 17% lower than that in January, and 5% higher than that in February of the same year. The output in February decreased, 30% lower than that in January, reaching 770000 tons.

         From the demand side of the market, downstream factories and dealers tend to look at the market with a cautious wait-and-see attitude, and their enthusiasm for taking goods is weak. The preparation of goods before the end of January is almost at the end of the year. Coupled with the outbreak of public health incidents before the festival, the willingness of downstream hoarding is weak. After the festival, part of the goods are replenished due to just need, and the actual orders are less. Some paper enterprises deliver goods after the year, mostly for orders before the year, and in February The consumption volume of the market is about 30% lower than that in January.

             According to the inventory situation of paper enterprises, some factories and distributors had a small decline in inventory due to the demand of stock preparation before the festival. Due to the local outbreak of public health events before the festival, the logistics in some areas was limited, especially the shipment in Hebei was hindered, and some paper enterprises in Hebei had a large inventory pressure. After the Spring Festival, the downstream should be replenished and the inventory should be stacked With the delivery of orders hoarded before last year, the inventory decreased. According to Longzhong data, the inventory days of paper enterprises in February were about 8 days, down about 1 day compared with January.

              After entering March, the pulp prices fluctuated, some prices fell, and the cost side boost was limited, but the support still existed. The paper market trading was relatively weak, and the purchase of downstream factories was mostly just for demand. Some companies were under pressure and preferred to consume inventory. Some companies germinated price reduction plans, and most of them were cautious and wait-and-see. In the short term, it is suggested to pay close attention to the trend of pulp.